The Uncertainty Principle: Somalia and the Art of Quantum Mechanics

Well, said. Visitng once does not make you any kind of expert.



Also, I googled your quote, and it seems to be based on this one about relativity: http://3quarksdaily.blogs.com/3quarksdaily/2005/06/monday_musing_s.html - maybe you only made up part of it?

Thanks Alanna, I checked that site and it's a quote about general relativity, which would have made my life a lot easier as I frankly don't understand quantum mechanics (as is probably clear from my post). But I seem to recall picking up the quote from a John Gribbin book

My two cents worth:



I don't understand Somalia either. A friend and I were recently discussing this very issue: Somalia and the uncertainty principle (though not quite eloquently stated). We decided that working in Somalia is different to working in any other conflict zone we had worked in. Why?



1. The frequency of security incidents, threats, and other mushkilas is much higher. Where one would expect one 'bullshit' incident per week in say Afghanistan, one can expect one or two incidents per DAY in Somalia. It's like people are on speed.



2. There are just too many players to deal with, and they evolve and splinter too quickly. Just the other day another Islamic group came to town. One we had never heard of before.



3. The uncertainty principle goes all the way from macro to micro. To the individual.



Sure makes it hard to plan, you know. So we try to plan (eg., for food aid distribution), and we find we have to re-plan every two or three days.



Oh yeah, and just to add that every time someone compares Shabab to Taliban, I just want to frikkin' deck 'em.

Vasco Pyjama, thought your post on corruption was interesting as well. I reckon it makes no sense to say that Somalia is the most corrupt country on the planet. Or rather, it makes no sense to use that as a criticism. In a place where there is no state to subvert, no market to swindle or banks to cheat corruption is what holds the economy together. Without it nothing would work at all.



It's another example of where Somalia is just qualitatively different to the rest of the known universe.

spot on - pretentious seems to suit you!



We have a similar problem in Sudan - so many expert analysts telling you exactly what is happening/will happen, which is then usually followed by the exact opposite. Somebody very seriously told me the other day "it takes at least a couple of months here before you really know whats going on". I had the same urge as Vasco.

I take your point Alun but I think there is a big difference between Sudan and Somalia. Sudan does ultimately follow a series of rational laws. The problem is that people who understand them are forced into silence - think UN or NGOs with people on the ground - while the people who offer themselves as experts don't know what they are talking about. OK a lot of predictions turn out to be wrong (it's not a science after all), but ultimately what happens in Darfur can be explained in some way that we all understand. (There is a government and there are rebels. There is a government that believes it is losing its country and acts like it has its back to the wall. The rebels sometimes exaggerate government attacks for PR purposes. And suddenly some things seem clearer - albeit after a couple of months as you point out.)



Somalia doesn't even hold out the hope of ex post facto explanations because it exists in some sort of alternative reality. I've seen the "insurgents" being described in recent wire copy as "rebels" but are they? Is the TFG really a government? Even our language seems inadequate to describe the place.

Had I gone with general relativity I could also have closed with a kicker about pouring money in a black hole... blast