Sudan is gearing up for judges at the International Criminal Court to decide whether to indict President Omar al Bashir on the three charges being pursued by Luis Moreno-Ocampo. Speculation is rife that a decision will come in February, although no-one knows for sure. Journalist and aid worker friends are already getting out - or at least readying evacuation plans - amid fears that things will turn nasty. Alex de Waal, on the Making Sense of Darfur blog, says a dangerous month looms...
The Sudan Government sees the ICC as the gravest threat to its survival it has ever faced and a matter of life and death. It is a national issue, not one confined to Darfur. Up to now, the Sudan Government has responded coolly to the threat, but it is clear that no option is off the table should an arrest warrant be issued.
Irin reports that foreigners are preparing for the worst...
Embassies, NGOs and UN staff have beefed up security and developed contingency plans, trying to ensure their programmes can continue if they are forced to leave the country. Evacuation plans are also in place.
Last time around, when Ocampo revealed he was seeking an arrest warrant, the reaction from Khartoum was muted. Bashir went on a peace tour of Darfur, and his officials managed to restrain themselves to comments along the lines of "If you undermine our authority then we will be less able to protect foreigners." There was also, of course, an increase in the steady harassment of NGOs. Jennie Matthew, who has just left Khartoum after a stint as AFP bureau chief, is characteristically underwhelmed by the panic...
I'm leaving Sudan on the cusp of an uncertain future, with all eyes trained on the aftermath of the expected arrest warrant for the president. Although cautious about the apocalyptic scenarios bandied about by others (Will Sudan expel Westerners, UN peacekeepers, aid workers? Will mobs trash the British, French and US embassies?) Western families are stockpiling food.
And Alex de Waal ends up concluding...
Key to how the Khartoum leadership responds will be the reactions of others, international and domestic. If the reaction all round were to be that the arrest warrant changes nothing and business as usual should continue, then the NCP and security leadership is likely to remain cool. But if the reactions are otherwise, then the response could be very adverse.
So there you have it. The chap who knows more than most about Sudan reckons it could go either way. Sudan does at least obey the rules of the known universe (unlike Somalia) but it's a foolish pundit who makes any predictions.
Photo: Omar al-Bashir arrives in El Geneina, West Darfur
What do you think?