Fred on the Democratic Republic of Congo

Background to the crisis in North Kivu

2008-10-30T06:44:52Z

Recent turbulence in the financial market is a reminder that economic stability is heavily reliant on collective perceptions and 'market confidence'. So it is with security, and nowhere is this more evident than in a so-called fragile state like the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is plummeting into a different kind of recession.

The seemingly endless crisis in North Kivu is making a rare foray into the international news agenda. (Recent reports: New York Times, Reuters, BBC.) It's more complicated than this, but here's some of the recent background:

Not so long ago, North Kivu was controlled by the Rwandan-backed RCD-Goma, a legacy of the 1998-2004 conflict which came to be known as 'Africa's First World War' because so many people died and because so many neighbouring countries sent troops to fight and plunder as the alliance of convenience that had helped Laurent Kabila topple Mobutu in 1997 fell apart.

As part of the power-sharing agreement that ended the war (but certainly not insecurity in the east), the RCD was given nearly a fifth of the seats in the National Assembly, but it was deeply unpopular, representing Rwandan interests and dominance of the Tutsi minority. When the Congolese people finally had a chance to vote for their representatives in 2006, the RCD held onto only 15 seats out of 500.

President Joseph Kabila owed a large part of his success in those elections to his overwhelming support in the war-ravaged eastern provinces, where he took credit for the UN-managed, internationally-financed elections and convinced the population that he would bring peace and security by ending the plague of foreign armed groups and local militias.

Unfortunately, the latter task fell to cautious, over-stretched UN forces and a corrupt, inept national army that was composed of former warring factions. With the huge country split into myriad, inaccessible local enclaves, it was never going to be easy to resolve all the problems of corruption, mismanagement and inter-ethnic power struggles. But the immediate post-election period offered a real window of opportunity for the new government to unite the country behind a clear vision and (with UN support) determined backing for the rule of law. They blew it.

Through costly trial and error in militia-infested Ituri (bordering Uganda), some evidence emerged that the formula of newly trained Congolese brigades backed by (Pakistani, South African, Guatemalan and at one stage European) peacekeepers ready and able to project and use force could produce results.

But the army was rotten, and those who called for senior officers (including untrained former militia leaders) to be vetted for war crimes and prevented from pocketing all the pay were repeatedly told that such niceties would have to wait until later. Ordinary soldiers were left to fend for themselves, in the fine tradition established by Mobutu in his decline, with predictable effects on their morale and reputation.

When the Congolese army was sent to oust Laurent Nkunda's CNDP rebels from their strongholds in the hills of North Kivu late last year, they relied on overwhelming numbers, lots of new weapons, and dangerous alliances with local and foreign Hutu militia groups (I saw both in Masisi when researching for Human Rights Watch). UN support was limited to logistics and medical evacuations, partly for fear of becoming complicit in war crimes. As the CNDP ceded ground, the army bombarded empty hilltops and proclaimed great victories. In a dramatic turnaround, the army was routed as soon as the rebels counterattacked, abandoning their uniforms and looting as they fled.

Diplomats scrambled to salvage the situation. A ceasefire was agreed, followed by a dubious peace deal that contained the conflict while acknowledging and cementing the status quo. Clashes and human rights violations continued even as the deal was being negotiated, so the local population and civil society remained deeply skeptical of the intentions of the signatories.

Referring the Congolese army's alliance with the FDLR (a Rwandan Hutu rebel group led by former genocidaires) and frequent ceasefire violations, the CNDP announced its withdrawal from the peace process. On 2 October, media-savvy Nkunda told the BBC he was ready to expand his operations to 'liberate the people of the Congo'. That statement must have earned him a lot of people's undivided attention.

Now the CNDP have once again humiliated the Congolese army by forcing them to flee strategic positions across North Kivu, tellingly beginning with the stretch of Virunga National Park which offers a supply line from Rwanda. (The CNDP certainly recruits from Congolese Tutsi refugees in Rwanda, and there are frequent allegations that they have covert support from the Rwandan army as well.)

UN troops tried to block the advance, stationing APCs to block the roads into Rutshuru, north of Goma. But the CNDP works in small, mobile groups, so they simply bypassed the barricades and overran the town, sabotaging the mobile phone network as they did so.

Large numbers have already fled Goma. Now the remaining population, including tens of thousands of displaced people who have nowhere left to go, is huddled and waiting to see what happens next. They are bitterly disappointed by their own government and have no faith left in the UN. The years of conflict have furnished them with numerous nasty memories from which to compose worst-case scenarios. They heard gunfire all night, but cannot tell who's doing the shooting: rebels, soldiers on a looting spree, or just firing in the air?

International relief workers and UN staff are gathered in two fortified compounds in Goma, sleeping on the floor, eating rations and trying to keep up with the news to see if they will be evacuated.

Nkunda declared a ceasefire last night. Is his plan to leave the CNDP as de facto authority of a big chunk of fertile, mineral-rich North Kivu, or do his ambitions really extend even further? Aware of the regional implications, the UN Security Council is anxiously pondering its options, including the rapid deployment of a UN-mandated European force.

Hello pal

2008-05-09T07:21:54Z

I suppose email scams are as much of a cultural record as anything else. Sgt Jarvis was thoughtful enough to send me this message today:

Hello Pal, I do hope my email meet you in good health. I am Staff Sgt. Jarvis Maxwell Reeves Jr. a U.S. helicopter maintenance supervisor in the 3rd Infantry Division, in Iraq. I am writing to solicit your allegiance as custodian to an asset value of 10 Million dollars that we are transferring out of this country. My partner and I are in need of a good partner someone we can trust to actualize this venture. The money is from oil proceeds and legal. And we are transferring it through a diplomatic pouch to your house directly or a safe and secured location of your choice via courier services. We seek your utmost confidentiality in this. Once you receive the fund, you are to take out an awesome reward of 15% and keep 85% for onward instruction on whether you're shrewd enough in our assessment to invest the money. If youâ€™re agreeable get yourself a deal by replying to: sgtjarvis27@yahoo.cn I wish to furnish you with more details. I await your response. Your Buddy. Sgt. Jarvis Maxwell Reeves Jr.

Demystifying the Congo

2008-04-30T09:38:51Z

A video to promote a series of events at the Frontline Club. I wrote an article on the topic of Victorian-era clichÃ©s and the Congo for the current issue of the From the Frontline newsletter. I'm grateful to Tim Butcher and Rory MacLean for the friendly exchange that gave rise to the piece.

See the world

2008-04-11T11:20:21Z

It must be a remarkable thing to grow up in rural Nepal, join the army, fight a guerilla insurgency in your own Himalayan backyard, and then be given a blue hat and deployed to militia-ridden, gold-rich Ituri, north-east Congo. Since few Nepalese soldiers speak French, let alone Swahili, they have to rely on local interpreters.

Photograph: Perimeter control at a helicopter landing site in Fataki, Ituri, northeast Congo

Off to the frontline

2008-03-16T15:23:44Z

This guy got his marching orders today and is setting off to join his unit in an operational zone near Rumangabo in North Kivu, eastern Congo. Transport is not provided, so he'll probably flag down vehicles along the way. He won't have to pay... Interesting that he's taking the stereo too.

The army is officially observing a ceasefire, but various armed groups are active and clashing with each other: in the past week the FDLR (Rwandan Hutu militia embedded in Congo since 94) have had run ins with the CNDP (led by a dissident Tutsi general), PARECO (a coalition of so-called self-defence groups) and Mayi Mayi (localised, opportunist militia groups identifiable by the foliage and lucky charms they wear).

Some Mayi Mayi groups have been recruiting in North Kivu just to swell their numbers in time for MONUC inspections following January's ceasefire agreement. The more troops the commanders can claim to control, the better their bargaining power in the hunt for cushy army posts.

A night on the road

2008-01-31T16:37:46Z

The truck's 'extrication kit' included shovels and a jack to deal with the mud; tools and spares for the Japanese diesel engine; and documents, cigarettes and whisky to ease our way through military checkpoints. We flew an identifying flag and had called the relevant field commanders before leaving.

We were carrying supplies for a hospital on the other side of the rebel-held mountains. I knew that heavy rains had rendered some sections of the road almost impassable, that our cargo might tempt looters, and that war was looming. I did not expect the 50-mile journey to take 24 hours.

We negotiated the various checkpoints without difficulty, but well into the mountains, the deep mud defeated our driver. Time and again, we dug ourselves out, but the light was fading and we decided it would be safer to stop than to continue in the dark.

The man who claimed to know the area best said we were in no man's land. Rebels controlled the area immediately to our north; the army had been advancing from the south. Neither side, he thought, was likely to risk descending to the road from their hilltop vantage points. Nobody seemed greatly cheered by this assessment.

Our colleagues hadn't heard from us, so they called senior contacts on both sides to seek assurances that we would come to no harm. One commander soon confirmed our position, adding that we had grilled corn-on-the-cob around a little roadside fire before sleeping in the cab. We never noticed his scouts.

Leaving at dawn, we fell silent as we passed through a series of abandoned villages. Looters had left doors swinging open; furniture littered the street. The sense of desolation lifted as we neared our destination and saw signs of life again: children, cattle, wood smoke.

That night, a sound like distant thunder signalled the outbreak of heavy fighting along the road we had taken. Nobody would be going that way for a while.

(The setting is North Kivu, eastern Congo, at the end of last year. I submitted this to The Observer Magazine's 'Incredible Journeys' section, which features a variety of very short travel anecdotes. They were too busy to write back, though, so what the hell, here it is.)

Close up of a peace agreement

2008-01-28T13:38:50Z

Choice observations upon examination of the recent peace agreement in eastern Congo:

Percentage of signatories using green pens: 0.05

Missing from the multimedia archives: audio file of the collective sigh of relief by 1,200 delegates when they heard, after several hours of speculation-filled delay, that the document had been signed.

Number of days from signature to first ceasefire violation to be reported by a party to the agreement: 4 (CNDP accuse Mai Mai and PARECO of attacking villages near Gungu and stealing cattle).

Number of items in a Google News search for 'Kenya crisis' from 10-28 January: 13,541

Number of items in a Google News search for 'Congo peace' for the same dates: 1,721

(For further essential facts, such as who used the nicest fountain pen, see the full blog post 'A closer look at the peace agreement'.)

Can compromises bring peace at last?

2008-01-21T17:24:27Z

Did you know that eastern Congo gets struck by lightning more often than anywhere else in the world?

It's usually preferable to agree some sort of ceasefire before holding formal talks. Suspending hostilities - however temporarily - is the polite thing to do. It builds confidence, sets the tone, and helps the concentration. But no such niceties marked this month's peace conference in Goma, eastern Congo, which was hastily convened after an attempt to overcome a group of Tutsi rebels ended in a demoralizing retreat by the ill-disciplined Congolese army, itself composed of former rebel factions.

In a memo to President Kabila in mid-December, parliamentarians, provincial ministers and civil society leaders (two-thirds of whom were based in Kinshasa) "noted with bitterness the loss of strategic positions in North Kivu" and, reluctant to admit defeat, proposed the "simultaneous use of 'Fight and Talk'". Sure enough, violence continued, as belligerent groups sought advantage and spoils ahead of an agreement, although the UN and the media have struggled to confirm the various rumours and reports of forced recruitment, massacres and looting. More than a thousand delegates registered to take part in the conference, doubling the planned capacity. AbbÃ© Malu Malu, the former election commissioner who is chairing the conference, described the first few days as 'group therapy', as a succession of minorities and armed groups aired their grievances, presented their versions of history and declared their pure intentions.

Behind the scenes, it appears an agreement has now been brokered between the Tutsi rebels and the government. This will involve an immediate ceasefire with a UN-patrolled buffer zone to separate their forces, and a 'partial amnesty' for the rebels (who will not be tried for insurgency but could still face charges for war crimes). The status of their leader, Laurent Nkunda, remains undefined. He continues to say he no intention to go into exile. Confusingly, even as this news broke, journalists received an email from the rebels objecting to being 'put in the same basket' as Mayi Mayi militia groups allied to the national army, and alleging the involvement of Angolan troops and FDLR militia on the side of the government. The email pointedly suggested that Rwanda could yet intervene if provoked by the presence of Rwandan FDLR guerillas near its border.

As I write, a BBC World Service bulletin says "peace may be in sight" in eastern DRC. It remains to be seen whether the agreement indeed sets the scene for genuine progress or merely marks a return to the status quo. An impressive total of 32 sub-commissions will be set up to oversee a plethora of tricky tasks identified by the conference. History suggests that the rebels will be slow to demobilise, insisting on progress with the return of refugees from Rwanda and disarmament of the FDLR. In the meantime, the most obvious spoiler to the ceasefire agreement is the FDLR, who were not invited to the conference and have a vested interest in instability.